A Mathematical Analysis of the Mountain Dew “Transform Your Summer” Promotion

We have partnered once again with long time friends Pepsi Co. to help deliver the Mountain Dew ‘Transform Your Summer’ sweepstakes. I’ll let an excerpt from the official press release best explain what’s going on:

Consumers can enter the “Transform Your Summer” sweepstakes online at http://www.transformyoursummer.com. Thousands of prizes will be given away each day and consumers will be able to choose the prize they would like the chance to win by entering the daily drawing of their choice. There will be several daily drawings each offering a different prize. The “Transform Your Summer” prizes include the Ultimate Gaming Package (Xbox 360, Panasonic 42″ Plasma HDTV, games and accessories), trips to major sporting events, vacation packages and many other items. In addition, a limited-edition Pepsi(TM) Optimus Prime(R) collectible truck figure will be available as part of the promotion. Here’s how the “Transform Your Summer” sweepstakes works

1. Look for codes under the caps of specially-marked 20-ounce and 1-liter bottles of Mountain Dew, Pepsi and Sierra Mist
2. Register at http://www.transformyoursummer.com
3. Enter your code during the daily drawing featuring the prize you would like the chance to win.

As you can see, you get a chance to enter your code for a daily drawing with a limited amount of each of the prizes given out everyday. But how best to decide what you bid for? Do you go for the Ultimate Gaming Package with a smaller chance of winning, or do you go for the high probability of scoring a $2 Yahoo! Music Download Code?

The Yahoo! Music marketing department is here to help with this decision by taking a mathematical look at the matter. We advise that you look at Expected Monetary Value of your code – weighing the value of the prize vs. the probability of winning that prize. For example, Mountain Dew is giving away $100 prizes every day with a probability of winning at about 1%. That would effectively make your code worth $1.

With this in mind, we took a sample day and calculated the best value for your code. The results, please..

• 6th Place – Panasonic 42” HDTV — $0.36 value per code
• 5th Place – XBOX 360 — $0.48
• 3rd Place – Yahoo! Music $2 Download code — $1
• 3rd Place – tie – $100 cash — $1
• 2nd Place – $25 cash — $1.85
• 1st Place – Official Mountain Dew Hoodie — $4.45

Our initial thoughts based on these results:

• People are absolutely disrespecting the official Transformers Mountain Dew Hoodie. We had it conservatively appraised at a $40 value. That’s your best value right there.
• The most intriguing prize is the $25 cash prize. It sits there over-shadowed by the shine of the $100 prize, but it’s a far better value for the money. Our results show that if you had unlimited codes, you would make an average of $1.85 a code entered for eternity. Unfortunately, this promotion ends in early August.
• We are amazed by the value of these codes! What other promotion lets you buy a drink for about a dollar and get a code that is essentially worth $1.85? One of the great values in modern online promotion history.
• Despite the results above, our official position is that you should take the $2 Yahoo! Music Download code because music is priceless and anything times priceless is priceless (except for maybe 0).

So go get yourself a ton of 20 ounce or 1 liter bottles of Mountain Dew, bid them all on the $25 prize, and become a Soda-Promo Entrepreneur.

Michael Cowan
Yahoo! Music